Electric commercial vehicles are rapidly gaining ground in China, with data showing that their share of the market reached about 29% in June and July. From January to July, the cumulative share of electric vehicles (EVs) in the commercial segment rose to 24.35%, up from 16.63% during the same period last year. Total new energy commercial vehicle sales in the first seven months reached 429,000 units, a 56% increase from 2024, compared with overall commercial vehicle growth of 6.6%.

Among specific segments, heavy-duty trucks accounted for 25.89% of the market in July, with cumulative sales of nearly 100,000 units from January to July, up 179% year-over-year. Light trucks (3.5–6 tons) maintained an EV share above 27% in June and July, with cumulative sales of 88,000 units, up 95% from last year. Pickup trucks, which traditionally have lower EV adoption, saw their market share exceed 10% in July, with cumulative sales of 12,400 units, up 115% from the same period last year.

Light buses lead all commercial segments in EV adoption, with cumulative sales of 246,000 units from January to July and a cumulative share of 59.49%, up from 53.13% last year. European-style vans currently show low penetration, representing a potential area for growth.

Based on current trends and the impact of year-end replacement policies for older trucks, analysts expect China’s new energy commercial vehicle sales to reach a record 800,000 units in 2025, up nearly 40% year-over-year, with an overall EV share of 26–28%. Heavy trucks and light trucks are projected to account for roughly 190,000 and 180,000 units, with EV shares around 25% and 28%, respectively.

Looking ahead, growth may slow in 2026. This year’s rapid increase is driven by lower freight rates, fewer goods per truck, cost advantages of EVs, and the replacement of older vehicles under policy incentives. Some demand has been pulled forward, and changes to EV purchase tax incentives—from full exemption to half exemption—may temper growth. Overall, the EV share in China’s commercial vehicle market is expected to surpass 50% by around 2030.

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